The Nigerian government has unveiled its largest national budget in 65 years, a record-breaking ₦54.99 trillion, representing a 56.89 percent increase from the ₦35.05 trillion budgeted in 2024 (including a supplementary ₦6.2 trillion).......CONTINUE READING THE ARTICLE FROM THE SOURCE>>>>>
President Bola Tinubu describes it as the “Budget of Restoration,” aimed at stabilising the economy and driving growth.
The blueprint boasts ambitious spending on infrastructure, security, and social programmes. But with a history of revenue shortfalls and debt dependency, can the government truly finance these plans?
And more importantly, will ordinary Nigerians feel the impact?
Where the money is going
Think of the budget like a household spending plan. If more money is set aside for security, it means less for food or rent. This year, the government is prioritizing security with ₦6.11 trillion, an 88 percent increase from ₦3.25 trillion in 2024.
The goal? To tackle terrorism, banditry, and rising insecurity-a fix-it-once approach, if history doesn’t repeat itself.
Infrastructure follows closely with ₦5.99 trillion for roads, bridges, and major projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, an increase of over 350 percent from ₦1.32 trillion last year.
Imagine fixing a long-neglected house. If done right, these projects could boost trade and create job opportunities.
Education, healthcare, and skills development get ₦5.7 trillion, up 161 percent from ₦2.18 trillion in 2024. Meanwhile, agriculture and food security receive ₦3.73 trillion, a massive increase from ₦362 billion, aiming to keep food prices in check.
But will this extra spending actually make life easier for ordinary Nigerians?
Experts at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) argue that without proper implementation, increased budgetary allocations may not translate to real improvements.
Read also: Nigeria’s N54.99trn budget supports economic expansion, says Bagudu
The elephant in the room
Imagine a family deciding to upgrade their home, but instead of saving, they take massive loans. That’s Nigeria right now. Despite Tinubu’s promise of fiscal discipline, “We cannot spend what we do not have,” borrowing remains a key pillar of this budget.
Debt servicing alone will swallow ₦16.3 trillion, a nearly 98 percent increase from ₦8.25 trillion in 2024. Picture earning ₦100,000 monthly but spending ₦50,000 just to pay interest on past loans.
That’s Nigeria’s dilemma-spending more on debts than on healthcare, education, and even infrastructure combined.
The government expects revenue to jump from ₦18.32 trillion to ₦36.35 trillion, a 123.19 percent percent increase, mainly through better tax collection and foreign investments.
But given Nigeria’s history of missing revenue targets, economists from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) warn that these projections could be overly optimistic.
“Nigeria’s budget size has nearly doubled in just one year, yet the revenue structure remains weak. If revenue targets are missed again, the country could face an even deeper fiscal crisis,” NESG noted in a recent analysis.
Gaps and excesses
While the budget emphasizes infrastructure, some spending choices raise questions. For instance, lawmakers get ₦344.85 billion, an increase from ₦197.93 billion in 2024—more money for themselves while asking citizens to tighten their belts.
The State House budget also includes over ₦7 billion for travel and transport alone, along with hefty allocations for refreshments and media expenses.
Meanwhile, social welfare programs, meant for struggling Nigerians, get just ₦723.68 billion, up from ₦600 billion, yet still a fraction of what is being spent on government operations.
It’s like a company increasing executives’ bonuses while giving workers a tiny raise, barely enough to cover inflation.
The new minimum wage of ₦70,000, up from ₦30,000, aims to boost purchasing power. But if inflation keeps rising, the extra money could vanish quickly, like pouring water into a leaking bucket.
Financial analysts from the Nigeria Association Macroeconomic Modeler (NAMM) warn that wage increases without tackling inflation could lead to higher consumer prices, eroding any real gains for workers.
Read also: Tinubu rejects N942bn census budget, proposes NYSC members to cut costs
Game-changer or money pit?
The government is banking on infrastructure to drive economic growth, with projects like the Lagos-Calabar Highway expected to improve connectivity and boost trade.
But Nigeria has a history of grand projects that fail to deliver. Take Buhari’s Abuja light rail to nowhere—millions were spent, yet the trains remain mostly empty due to poor planning.
Valentine Okenwa, a transport economist warns that unless project feasibility studies improve, billions could be wasted on infrastructure that does not serve the public effectively.
Will this time be different, or will these new projects become yet another expensive, unfinished dream? Without strict oversight, they risk becoming financial black holes rather than engines of growth.
What it means for the average Nigerian
For millions of Nigerians battling high food prices, fuel costs, and unemployment, the big question remains: Will this budget make any real difference? Will more money for agriculture mean cheaper food in the market?
Will infrastructure spending create jobs and grow the economy? Or will waste and corruption swallow the benefits, leaving citizens frustrated?
A budget of restoration or reckoning?
Nigeria’s 2025 budget is ambitious, but ambition alone doesn’t put food on the table. The real test lies in execution, transparency, and the government’s ability to curb waste.
Without these safeguards, the Budget of Restoration risks becoming just another high-stakes gamble with Nigeria’s future, one that citizens cannot afford to lose.
Oluwatobi Ojabello, senior economic analyst at BusinessDay, holds a BSc and an MSc in Economics as well as a PhD (in view) in Economics (Covenant, Ota).
