January 2025 oil production status data published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed that aggregate output increased by 3.6 per cent to 47.7 million barrels, implying daily average output of 1.54 million barrels excluding condensates of 198,783bpd – the highest output level in three years.......CONTINUE READING THE ARTICLE FROM THE SOURCE>>>>>
According to the NUPRC, Nigeria’s major oil terminals performed well in January, with Otakpipo (up 12.9% m/m), Escravos (11.9% m/m), Que Iboe (10.9 m/m), Bonny (4.1% m/m), Yoho (3.1% m/m), Antan (2.7 m/m), Forcados (2.6 m/m), Okono (1.3 m/m) and Tulja-Okwuibome (0.4% m/m).
Against this backdrop, the country surpassed its OPEC quota for the month by 3.0%, the first of such in several months.
Analysts at Afrinvest said, “We welcome this development, as it is critical to strengthening foreign exchange (forex) reserves accretion and the revamping of fiscal capacity, if sustained.’ ‘Precisely, should the momentum be built upon in the coming months to deliver the baseline crude oil output of 2.01mbpd, budgeted oil revenue shortfall for the year may not be as significant as it was in 2023 and 2024 where it underperformed by more than 30.0 per cent in each period.”
Afrinvest, last week, said that that the federal government’s projected revenue of N0.90 trillion for 2025 (in which the proceeds of crude oil and gas is expected to contribute 47.7 per cent ) could be jeopardized by disappointing oil output.
The cautious optimism, analysts say is underpinned by a similar output spike in January 2024 (up 6.9% m/m to 41.4mbpd) but failed to be sustained in subsequent months.
While they applauded the recent commitment by security agencies (notably, the military) to ensure oil theft is curtailed in the Niger-Delta region, they expressed concerned that the weak or non-deployment of modern advanced equipment to monitor end-to-end flow of crude oil may mean that the recent gain may not be a sustainable one. Overall, we posit that curbing oil theft through strong government action is pivotal to ramping up crude oil output to the target level.
